The Unanswered Question · World Cup 2026 · Pre-tournament analysis

Did teams pick the
right base camp?

FIFA offered 64 approved facilities across North America. Before the tournament begins, we calculated the optimal base camp for each team using probability-weighted travel across all possible paths. Some teams left tens of thousands of kilometres on the table. Whether it costs them anything is the question only the tournament can answer.

Austria leave 9,957 km on the table by choosing Santa Barbara over Frisco, TX. · Portugal have no business in Florida. · 6 of 48 teams are already at their optimal base. The tournament will decide if it matters.
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Location map
Actual base
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This is a pre-tournament analysis. The optimal base camp calculations are fixed — the fixtures are set and the base camps are confirmed. What we don't know is whether the extra distance translates into meaningful fatigue, or whether the teams who chose well will outperform those who didn't. The trophy gets lifted in New Jersey on 19th July 2026. That's when this question gets its answer.

Also on this project
Who travels the most overall? →
← Back to the full project
Pre-tournament projection. For each team, expected travel was recalculated placing them at every other team's confirmed base camp. The optimal base is whichever FIFA-approved facility minimises probability-weighted travel across all group fixtures and knockout bracket paths. "Wasted" = expected distance from actual base minus expected from optimal base. Teams already at their optimal location shown at reduced opacity. Distances are great-circle, doubled for each return trip to base.